Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby in thrilling fashion, edging Sierra Leone by a nose in a three-horse photo finish, and it was decided late last week that this son of Goldencents would make a run for the Triple Crown.
Trainer Kenny McPeek was hesitant to commit his horse to the Preakness Stakes after the Derby win, saying when he tried his colt back from a two-week layoff previously “it completely backfired.” Now it seems Mystik Dan’s connections are ready for a rematch of the main contenders from the Grade I Arkansas Derby, where Muth (who is trained by Bob Baffert) defeated Mystik Dan and Just Steel.
“He was ready for the Arkansas Derby,” McPeek said Saturday. “I’m not going to use that as an excuse. He did get turned sideways in that turn, and [jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.] felt like that cost him three or four lengths. The horse fought back, fortunately. I’m optimistic maybe we can give [Muth] another run.”
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Mystik Dan will not be the only Kentucky Derby horse in the field. Catching Freedom, fourth in the Derby, will use the Preakness Stakes as a steppingstone to Monmouth Park’s Grade I Haskell Stakes this summer.
Sierra Leone, however, will skip the Preakness in favor of the Belmont Stakes, which because of Belmont Park’s reconstruction will be held at Saratoga this year at a distance of 1¼ miles, not the traditional 1½. Japanese horses Forever Young and T O Password left for their native country soon after the run for the roses completed. Honor Marie and West Saratoga also will pass on the second leg of the Triple Crown in favor of the third.
Running in the Kentucky Derby is no longer a prerequisite to winning the big race at Pimlico. New shooters, as they are called, have won four straight Preakness Stakes. Baffert was expected to have two new shooters in this race, the morning-line favorite Muth and Imagination, but Muth scratched Wednesday due to a fever. That leaves Baffert just one horse to extend his legacy here at Pimlico; he has saddled eight Preakness winners, including Triple Crown champions American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018 as well as National Treasure last year.
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Post time: Saturday, 6:50 p.m. Eastern
Live stream: Peacock
No. 1 Mugatu (20-1)
Trainer: Jeff Engler
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Mugatu comes into the Preakness off a lackluster fifth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, yet Engler liked what he saw in training Sunday morning at Churchill Downs. “He finished his last quarter in 23 [seconds], and he is just peaking right now,” Engler said. “We know that if there ever is a time to take a shot with him, now is the time to do it.”
You have to like the optimism. It took Mugatu five tries at three different tracks to break his maiden, and he hasn’t defeated winners in seven races since, never finishing better than third — and that was in optional claiming company. He appears grossly misplaced here.
No. 2 Uncle Heavy (20-1)
Trainer: Butch Reid
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
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A surprise winner in the Grade III Withers Stakes at 9-1, Uncle Heavy regressed in the Grade II Wood Memorial, finishing fifth by 11 lengths in the key Kentucky Derby prep race. There is a big step up from Grade III to Grade I competition, and Uncle Heavy hasn’t yet shown he can make the leap.
No. 3 Catching Freedom (6-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Prat guided his mount from 15th to fourth in the Kentucky Derby, finishing just two lengths behind the victor. He also won the Louisiana Derby aboard Catching Freedom at the same 1 3/16-mile distance as the Preakness.
No. 4 Muth (8-5)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Scratched on Wednesday due to a fever.
No. 5 Mystik Dan (5-2)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
He won the Kentucky Derby by a nose, but you have to wonder what the outcome would have been if not for a perfect trip under Hernandez. According to Equibase’s GPS data, Mystik Dan traveled 6,608 feet during the race, at least seven fewer feet than any other horse in the field — and 23 feet fewer than second-place finisher Sierra Leone and 39 fewer than third-place finisher Forever Young. After taking that into account, Mystik Dan was the third-fastest horse in the field (53.59 feet per second) after Forever Young (53.87) and Sierra Leone (53.74).
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No. 6 Seize the Grey (15-1)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Jaime Torres
Aiming toward the Preakness was the plan as soon as Seize the Grey hit the wire first in the Grade II Pat Day Mile Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs, paying $20.84 for a $2 win wager. It was the third win and first graded-stakes victory in nine starts for the son of Arrogate.
No. 7 Just Steel (15-1)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Just Steel, a son of 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify, finished 17th in the Kentucky Derby, but Lukas felt the pace was “too much, much too early” and that’s what caused his horse to falter down the stretch. Perhaps we see him run a similar race to his second-place finish in the Grade I Arkansas Derby in March.
No. 8 Tuscan Gold (8-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
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Tuscan Gold broke his maiden in his second career start and held on for third in the Louisiana Derby in his third race, a finish that Brown thought was hampered by a poor trip.
“I thought he was the best horse in the race. He didn’t get a good trip at all. I wasn’t happy about it,” Brown told the Daily Racing Form. “He should have tucked him on the first turn. He was the only horse near the front who finished. He ran great. I expected him to run big.”
No. 9 Imagination (6-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
The runner-up in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, Imagination will head to the East Coast for the first time in four starts. Baffert’s colt broke his maiden in his third career race at Santa Anita Park, then won the Grade II San Felipe Stakes around that same oval two months later. He was ineligible for the Kentucky Derby because of Baffert’s suspension at Churchill Downs.
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